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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, French President Emmanuel Macron, and President-elect Donald Trump pose for photos after a meeting at the Élysée Palace in Paris. December 7, 2024.
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No peace to keep Why are European leaders debating sending peacekeepers to Ukraine? Crisis Group expert Simon Schlegel explains.

Source: Meduza
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, French President Emmanuel Macron, and President-elect Donald Trump pose for photos after a meeting at the Élysée Palace in Paris. December 7, 2024.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, French President Emmanuel Macron, and President-elect Donald Trump pose for photos after a meeting at the Élysée Palace in Paris. December 7, 2024.
Mustafa Yalcin / Anadolu / Getty Images

As Donald Trump returns to the White House promising to bring Moscow and Kyiv to the negotiating table and scale back U.S. support for Ukraine, European leaders are grappling with what this could mean for security on the continent. In the weeks leading up to Trump’s inauguration, France and the U.K. renewed talk of deploying European peacekeepers to enforce a potential ceasefire or peace deal — and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also expressed support for having European boots on the ground in Ukraine. But with Russia showing no interest in peace as of yet, is it possible that these discussions are actually aimed at appealing to Trump himself? To learn more about the politics and logistics of sending European peacekeepers to Ukraine, The Beet editor Eilish Hart spoke to Simon Schlegel, a senior analyst for Ukraine at Crisis Group.

The following interview has been lightly edited and abridged for length and clarity.
Simon Schlegel

— According to media reports, discussions about the possibility of sending European peacekeepers into Ukraine began among British and French officials, and French President Emmanuel Macron has certainly been front and center in these discussions. Do you have a sense of why France and the U.K. are taking the lead here?

— It’s clear that Trump wants to end this war and start negotiations, and he also wants Europe to take a bigger stake in ending this war and [maintaining] security in Europe. France and the U.K. are the two countries that are best positioned now to make sure that Europe has a seat at the table and that decisions aren’t made without Europe; to send a signal to both Putin and Washington that they’re still a force to be [reckoned] with. Germany is much more cautious, and has elections coming up in a month. 

This also follows earlier patterns of how Macron behaved: putting things out there that aren’t very likely but that make it harder for adversaries in Moscow to know why exactly this is going on and to keep things ambiguous. I think it’s a pivotal time for that because we’re heading towards negotiations and it’s important for Europe to offer as many options as possible. And [sending peacekeepers to Ukraine] isn’t a likely option but it’s something that shouldn’t be ruled out before negotiations even start.

— Do you get the sense that British and French officials are on the same page as Kyiv on this issue? Where does Ukraine stand on the prospect of peacekeepers?

— Ukraine is looking for any option that heightens its security when the war grinds to a halt. Having foreign troops in the country would certainly serve as a deterrent for a renewed Russian attack. So, clearly Ukraine would want to have troops from a NATO country inside their country. They were very enthusiastic when France first mentioned that last year, and now it’s clear that somebody would have to monitor the contact line — and the more this is done by foreign powers, the less Ukraine’s own military needs to do this itself. 

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Ukraine has substantial manpower problems and, therefore, having foreign peacekeepers present here would allow Ukraine to move its troops further away [from the contact line], and to train and rest more of its troops while there’s still a very shaky peace along this contact line at the beginning. So, they’re clearly for it, and I think that France and the U.K. have coordinated their rhetoric amongst themselves and with Kyiv. 

— Recently, Zelensky said that he and Macron discussed “practical steps” for deploying peacekeepers to Ukraine. What are some of the logistics that would have to be taken into consideration here? What do they mean by “practical steps”? 

— Well, they would certainly mean discussing what sections of the contact line [would need monitoring]. This is a very long line, which also means they’d need to discuss how many people are required. Is it just the frontline inside Ukraine or would it also include the border with Russia and Belarus? Would it include the coastline, as well? 

They’d also have to clarify what the mandate of these [peacekeepers] is: How well armed would they be or would they be armed at all? What other gear could they bring in? Could it be planes and helicopters or only drones? [Then there’s the question of] what would be their interaction with Ukrainian troops? Can they train Ukrainian troops, for example? That would certainly be a no go for Moscow. Could they also receive training from Ukrainian troops in terms of drone and electronic warfare? These are things that Ukrainian troops are probably now better placed to provide training in for NATO troops, and that would probably also be a no go for Moscow. 

These are all things that would have to be clarified beforehand between the countries that send peacekeepers and Ukraine, and would then also have to be very clearly agreed upon with Moscow. I think most European countries would only do this if they could expect that Moscow wouldn’t attack their troops in Ukraine, [so] the scope of operation for these troops would have to be very clearly communicated to Moscow.

— Is there any indication that Russia would be willing to accept a ceasefire or peace deal that involves European or, as they would see it, NATO troops on Ukrainian territory as peacekeepers? 

— I don’t think there’s any indication of that so far. It shouldn’t be ruled out at this stage, but it’s very unlikely that the Russians are going to agree to that. They have said repeatedly that they’re very much against any NATO presence in Ukraine. Maybe the Russians would be more flexible if it weren’t NATO country troops or weren’t only NATO country troops, or if NATO countries would only pay for them but not send their own troops. So, it’s probably good to have a very broad spectrum of options once negotiations start, but so far there’s no indication that Moscow would be interested or even willing to allow that. [However,] both sides will have to be flexible in what they allow, so it’s good to have this as an option at the outset. 

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— Donald Trump reportedly wants European troops to oversee a potential ceasefire in Ukraine, perhaps with U.S. support but without American troops actually on the ground. Are these discussions between European officials and Zelensky about peacekeepers perhaps just an attempt to appeal to Trump and shore up American support for Ukraine?

— I think it has sunk in with the Europeans that they have to do more and there isn’t all that much more they can do in terms of the defense industry. Building that up is a very slow process that also takes American aid, because the European and American defense industries are so closely intertwined. It would be a very gradual process for the Europeans to take over more of the military aid in terms of sending weapons [to Ukraine]. So, the one thing the Europeans could do more quickly is to send troops they already have or that could be trained within a couple months or years.

Europe is also realizing now that there’s a real prospect that Trump will discuss a European security matter directly with Putin, over the heads of Ukraine and the E.U., and that is very unappealing. Now’s a good time to say to Trump, as well as to Putin, that Europe’s not going to stick to any decisions that are being made without it, and signaling a readiness for deeper involvement and taking over more costs and risks is a good way of doing that.

— The other discussion that seems to be running in parallel with this conversation about peacekeepers is the possibility of moving existing overseas training programs inside Ukraine. Does this seem more viable or likely to you in terms of next steps for Europe? 

— I think that’s probably a bit closer to reality at the moment, because for a long time already there have been complaints from both the Ukrainians and Western military experts that shipping all those troops abroad and training them there, across language barriers and whatnot, is not a very effective way of doing [things], and that the Ukrainians would have to train bigger units within Ukraine in order to learn some of the maneuvers that are required at the front lines.

[Moving training programs inside Ukraine] would require better air defense for the military bases where this would happen. It would still be a provocation for Russia, but it would probably go a long way towards resolving some of Ukraine’s training problems. Even just foreign air defense interceptors to protect Ukrainian military bases where the Ukrainians can train big units would go a long way. So, that’s probably a more plausible scenario than having foreign troops near the front line. But it’s still something that would probably have to be fought for very deeply and where NATO countries would have to have a good answer for what is going to happen if their soldiers die [in Ukraine]. 

Overall, I think [the possibility of European peacekeepers] is an important discussion, but I don’t see it happening very soon. I think it’s an important thought experiment to go through at this stage, but it’s still unlikely. 

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Interview by Eilish Hart